Intiuitively Analytical

community101: The Whole Truth - Community 3.22 Jeff Winger has...

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 19:47:59 -0500

The Whole Truth - Community 3.22

Jeff Winger has some great speeches but this is easily my favorite.

thedailyfeed: This is the speech President Richard Nixon was...

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 16:15:50 -0500

This is the speech President Richard Nixon was prepared to give in case Apollo 11 did not safely return.

Luckily, it was never needed. RIP Neil Armstrong.

I think that this ad will succeed in being seen beyond its...

Fri, 03 Aug 2012 18:43:45 -0500

I think that this ad will succeed in being seen beyond its budget, however having watched it I may never eat ice cream again. You’ve been warned.

"A half-read book is a half-finished love affair."

Thu, 02 Aug 2012 20:36:31 -0500

“A half-read book is a half-finished love affair.”

- David Mitchell, Cloud Atlas (via somaholiday)

"But that’s my opinion. And a society that truly believes in individual freedom will respect Mr...."

Thu, 02 Aug 2012 20:31:00 -0500

“

But that’s my opinion. And a society that truly believes in individual freedom will respect Mr. Cathy’s right to his views. Those who disagree with him are free to boycott Chick-fil-A in protest. But if our elected officials run Chick-fil-A out of town, they are effectively voting for all of us, regardless of our respective beliefs, and eliminating our individual freedoms.

And freedom, after all, is at the heart of the controversy over same-sex marriage. True individual freedom includes allowing consenting adults to marry the partners they choose, regardless of gender. To those for whom same-sex marriage is personally objectionable, their free choice is simple: Don’t enter into one. But don’t impede the freedom of others to do so. As long as Chick-fil-A operates within the boundaries of the law, municipalities and institutions should leave the decision about whether to eat at Chick-fil-A to individual consumers. If they do, Chick-fil-A is still likely to experience a net loss of business over time as a result of Mr. Cathy’s statements. This is because gay people are the constituency most viscerally, fundamentally and personally affected by the denial of the freedom to marry the consenting adult we choose. We are the ones with the highest personal stakes in sticking out the battle in the long run. And we will vote with our feet.

In the marketplace as in politics, those rare players who place individual freedom ahead of their own personal agendas will get my vote every time.

”

- “Let Chick-fil-A-Fly-Free” by Steve Salbu, New York Times editorial

This is one of my wife’s favorite books and I’m...

Thu, 02 Aug 2012 20:29:28 -0500

This is one of my wife’s favorite books and I’m thankful she let me borrow it long enough to read, twice. David Mitchell’s plot structure, characterization and changes in voice all represent very impressive literary accomplishments.

We are both skeptical that the Wachowski brothers, or anyone for that matter, will be able to succeed in adapting this work to the big screen but we are looking forward to seeing it in the hope that we’ll be proven wrong.

The True Danger of Steroid Abuse

Mon, 16 Jul 2012 10:44:38 -0500

The True Danger of Steroid Abuse:

Through this link you’ll finally learn what would happen if you try to hit a baseball pitched at 90% the speed of light.

This highlights how flawed the steroid debate’s focus on batters has been. The risk of questionable home run records pales in comparison to the fiery apocalypse which could be unleashed by juiced up pitchers.

Death Threats Aren't Discourse

Thu, 12 Jul 2012 16:44:14 -0500

Death Threats Aren't Discourse:

Sadly this is only one of many examples of the vitriol spewed forth by individuals on both ends of the political spectrum. Quick quiz:

Do you believe an individual deserves to die because they don’t share your political views?

If you answered “no” then congratulations, you are a human being.

If you answered “yes” please, for your sake if nothing else, consider therapy.

Just returned from watching Safety Not Guaranteed and I highly...

Mon, 09 Jul 2012 20:37:35 -0500

Just returned from watching Safety Not Guaranteed and I highly recommend it. It is a deeply meaningful movie effortlessly presented in a light and humorous tone. It will make you think but you’ll enjoy doing so.

The plot is the highlight but the cast makes it succeed. While she is great in a supporting role on Parks and Recreation, I had doubts about how well Aubrey Plaza could carry a leading role. Thankfully, those doubts were unfounded. She and Mark Duplass had believable chemistry while Jake M. Johnson and Karan Soni fit an impressive amount of comedy and emotional depth into their supporting parts.

The ending is fittingly somewhat ambiguous, but if you are like me you won’t mind at all.

Go see it with some friends, it is a journey best experienced with a partner(s).

Today's Supreme Court Ruling

Thu, 28 Jun 2012 19:24:23 -0500

My thoughts on today’s ruling:

1) I’m surprised the swing vote was Justice Roberts, not Justice Kennedy.

2) There are aspects of the legislation I like and I understand the logic behind the individual mandate (systems of shared risk generally work better with as wide a pool as possible and many without insurance currently are young individuals who are less likely to draw more than they pay) but I don’t think it is the right approach. If we want government mandated universal insurance we should adopt a single payer system rather than forcing people to purchase plans from profit-driven private insurers. I don’t personally support that approach either but would prefer it to a hybrid system featuring the drawbacks of both the free-market and public approaches.

3) Finding the mandate constitutional under the taxation clause rather than the commerce clause is one of the most important aspects of the decision. Like North Dakota v. Dole, it theoretically limits the direct exercise of federal power but offers an acceptable indirect alternative. The former led to a block grant approach to federalism, it will be interesting to see what taxes to regulate individual behavior will be proposed in the future.

4) I understand that passions run high, especially on issues such as this, but still wish that the discussion focused more on an exchange of ideas rather than attacks. Most people on both sides genuinely want the best for our country, we just have different thoughts on what that is.

Mass Effect 3 Extended Cut Analysis

Tue, 26 Jun 2012 20:21:12 -0500

If you are not familiar with Mass Effect 3’s ending and do not wish to be please stop reading now.

As those of you remaining likely know, the Extended Cut released today offers slight modifications and retcons to the existing red, green, blue endings as well as adding a fourth option: refusal.

While no over acknowledgement of error has occured, or is likely to occur, the items retconned by the extended cut are clear acknowledgements of failures in the original: your squadmates are now evacuated by the Normandy during the final battle, Admiral Hacket orders, the relays are no longer destroyed and your crewmates are no longer stranded on a desert island. These corrections do raise some new issues but at least address a few of the existing ones.

I especially welcome the addition of the refusal ending, even though its aftermath makes it clear that Bioware holds it in low regard.

To illustrate why I welcome this addition here is my analysis of the color choices using the information that Shepherd possesses at the time of the decision. Retroactive analysis may offer clarity in forum debates but it doesn’t offer a meaningful evaluation of the choice the gamer must make within the narrative.

Blue Ending (Control): Throughout the narrative this has been the approach advocated by those presented to us by the primary antagonists (namely Saren and the Illusive Man). We have in fact just concluded a confrontation with the IM over this very issue. We are assured by the starchild that while these villains pursued this option because they were controlled, the fundamental idea is sound and we can succeed where they failed.

Green Ending (Synthesis): Presented by the starchild as the optimal resolution to its problem. This option requires Shepherd to fundamentally alter the fabric of every sentient being in the known universe without their consent. You have only the starchild’s assurance that this will not alter their free will.

Red Ending (Destroy): Presented as the worst of the three colored options by the starchild, he assures you that firing into the red tubes will result in genocide (destruction of the Geth along with all synthetics). While control can target only the reapers, you are assured by the catalyst that destroy can not.

I reject these choices for one primary reason: the available evidence gives me more reason to distrust the starchild than trust him. His reasoning regarding Control has been presented, and rightly rejected, before. He asks us to believe that he is capable of targeting in one option but not in another. If, in fact, he is truly incapable of targeted destruction than the destroy option must mean the death of all life dependent upon synthetics which includes not just the Geth but also the Quarians and myself.

The synthetic option is the most abhorrent of the three. Even if I had reason to trust the starchild, ignoring that it is only his chosen solution that ensures the “inevitability” of its “problem”, the idea of committing cultural genocide is anathema to everything that my Shepherd believes. If individuals retain their free will after synthesis, which is doubtful, they still have involuntarily lost their cultural identity.

I therefore choose refuse and am met with a display of the starchild’s true petulance and arrogance, appropriately voiced in the manner of a Reaper. It doesn’t require a deep analysis of this ending to see that this represents Bioware’s response to those gamers’ who dare to reject their “artistic vision”. I do appreciate that while gamers like myself are punished with the extinction of known life they do at least offer the hope that our experience likely allows subsequent civilizations to avoid the same annihilation. Were this a review of the extended cut I would give Bioware a passing, but not excelling, grade.

One final note for like-minded gamers who do not bow down to the starchild, know that your choice not only dooms the known universe but it also removes Buzz Aldrin. Yes, our favorite space grandpa is no longer present in the Refusal epilogue having been replaced by an Asari. Only shoot the starchild if your conscience can deal with what it means for Aldrin’s fate.

What is your choice?

When xkcd meets Gilbert & Sullivan we get Every...

Wed, 09 May 2012 07:21:30 -0500

When xkcd meets Gilbert & Sullivan we get Every Major’s Terrible. I’m choosing to believe that my field, Political Science, is not on there because he doesn’t think it is terrible not because he doesn’t think it is relevant/rhymeable.

For those wondering if this can be sung, here’s proof: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu1VhsNOwPU

All together now…

Politicalprof: Hoping For Third

Tue, 08 May 2012 21:40:48 -0500

Politicalprof: Hoping For Third:

These reasons speak to the motives of many who casually pine for a third party but for some there is another motivation: electoral reform. For these individuals the reform itself is the goal, emergence of legitimate competitors to the two major parties would simply be representative of its success.

As you note in one of your prior explanations the key components of our current electoral system, particularly single member plurality districts, are designed for a two-party system. It can be debated whether this reform is desirable, proportional representative systems have produced both profound successes and failures, but it does at least provide more grounds for discussion than simple discontent with the existing parties.

politicalprof:

So a few days ago jasencomstock asked me a question to the effect of, “why do so many people like third parties so much”?

The context of his question derived from a series of queries I answered about the prospects of a third party emerging in the United States any time soon. In each case I…

The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn’s leader warns “the time...

Tue, 08 May 2012 17:22:58 -0500

The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn’s leader warns “the time for fear has come…” If Europe’s economic issues can not be solved and extremist parties like his succeed in gaining power then yes, it has.

Samaras Fails to Form Greek Government, Hands Back Mandate

Mon, 07 May 2012 21:03:06 -0500

Samaras Fails to Form Greek Government, Hands Back Mandate:

Of even more interest than the UK Council elections we discussed last week are the recent Greek elections and their ongoing attempts at building a ruling coalition.

Normally the negotiations made possible by a parliamentary system is fun to watch but there is too much riding on this outcome to simply enjoy the process. An anti-austerity coalition, which now looks plausible, could result in Greece’s withdrawal from the Eurozone. This withdrawal would put pressure on Portugal and if it withdraws the dominoes may start to topple.

Even more frightening is that the economic crisis has allowed for the rise of extremist parties on both ends of the spectrum. Particularly frightening is the fact that the Golden Dawn, an unabashedly fascist party, has now won seats in Parliament.

jakke has provided a good ongoing coverage of the stituation:

Wow that was quick.

So the biggest party in Parliament after yesterday’s Greek elections ended up being the pro-austerity centre-right ND, who had 108 of the 300 seats (because the largest party gets an automatic 50-seat bonus). It was kind of expected they would try to team up with the pro-austerity centre-right PASOK (who have 41 seats) and maybe try to bring some smaller party on board and they’d basically keep the same pro-eurozone trajectory as before.

Turns out that’s not the case. After like six hours, ND realized they had no prospects of putting together a coalition. Tomorrow, the second-largest party (SYRIZA, the very anti-austerity Coalition of the Radical Left) will get a chance. It’s really not clear what a potential SYRIZA-led coalition would look like; I’m fairly certain that they just don’t have the seats. If SYRIZA can’t do it within three days, then theoretically PASOK gets a turn (which will fail) and then a new round of elections get called.

At this point, odds are greater than 75% that a new round of elections happen - probably pretty quickly, because any caretaker government will have zero legitimacy to make big decisions. (Traditionally it would be headed by a Supreme Court judge, but some kind of central bank official might make more sense here.)

What would a new round of elections look like? Pretty tricky to say. In this election an incredible 18% of voters voted for parties that didn’t make it to the 3% threshold for representation, and most of them would almost certainly switch their votes. Also, 35% of potential didn’t show up at all (despite the fact that this was obviously a pretty important election) and any change in turnout could totally change the outcome.

Fallacies from the Heart

Mon, 07 May 2012 17:46:52 -0500

I’m hoping that the Heartland Institute paid for this digital billboard to provide a graphic example of the Guilt by Association fallacy. Sadly their plans to continue pursuing this approach with billboards featuring Osama bin Laden and Charles Manson speak otherwise.

Reasonable people can disagree about the policy implications of climate research, this doesn’t contribute to the discussion.

Next up for Ted Kaczynski’s career as a marketing model: “I still believe in beards. Do you? www.barbasol.com”

Happy Cinco de Mayo!

Sat, 05 May 2012 17:20:58 -0500

Did you know that today celebrates the Mexican defeat of the French in the 1862 Battle of Pueblo? So if you see any friends of French descent while celebrating today consider consoling them, then get back to celebrating.

London Mayoral Election Results

Fri, 04 May 2012 19:04:29 -0500

London Mayoral Election Results:

For my fellow Anglophiles out there, the London election results will be posted at this link today. They likely would have been up already had a power outage not struck the counting center this morning.

The incumbent, Conservative Boris Johnson, is expected to win reelection and pundits are starting to discuss him as a potential challenger to David Cameron.

What I most enjoy about this election is their use of an instant runoff voting (IRV) system. Each voter picks their first and second preferences then if no candidate recieves over 50% of the vote initially an instant runoff occurs between the top two vote getters.

It isn’t a perfect system but it does limit confusion for voters and minimize the extra vote counting time required. Adoption of this system in the United States would significantly improve the chance of voters being able to select their most ideologically compatible candidate while still having a say in the outcome.

Would the two major parties ever allow this type of electoral reform? Should they?

UPDATE: After a very lengthy vote count, Johnson did win narrowly despite a strong swing to Labor.

While we are on the subject of today’s elections in the United...

Fri, 04 May 2012 08:52:03 -0500

While we are on the subject of today’s elections in the United Kingdom, I’d like to offer a hearty congratulations to Professor Pongoo (pictured) on his strong performance in the Edinburgh Council election.

"Saturday's 'Supermoon' won't destroy Earth"

Thu, 03 May 2012 18:12:36 -0500

"Saturday's 'Supermoon' won't destroy Earth":

National Geographic throws its hat in the ring with an early candidate for this year’s best headline. I know I’m breathing easier with this knowledge…